Poll shock for Celia

The Dominion Post this morning published a new “poll“, showing John Morrison with a 10 point lead over Celia Wade-Brown. Here are the key numbers:

• Morrison – 27%
• Wade-Brown – 17%
• Yan – 8%
• Young – 4%
• Undecided – 43%

Alarmingly though, of the 635 people surveyed, only 275 were actually eligible to vote in the election! A decent chunk of the 43% undecided will probably be part of the 60% that don’t end up voting in local body elections. Celia will be quick to dismiss the result on this fact alone – and rightly so. That said, she should still be very worried by the trend.

If there does only end up being a ten point gap between the two, then the preferences of the other contenders will be vital. It would be safe to assume almost all of Nicola Young’s preferences will flow to John Morrison. Jack Yan’s preferences on the other hand will be much harder to predict.

More interesting were the opinions on various issues:

Most important council issues

• Rates and council spending 96 per cent
• Infrastructure e.g. parking, sewage, water and rubbish 96 per cent
• Transport/roading 93 per cent

Least important council issues

• Tourism 72 per cent
• Youth issues 71 per cent
• Waterfront development 55 per cent

Most important things that will determine who readers vote for

• Level of honesty 69 per cent
• Accountability for spending 66 per cent
• Past performance 65 per cent

Least important things that will determine who readers vote for

• Name recognition 11 per cent
• Personalities 29 per cent

Amalgamation

• Greater Wellington region councils should have some form of amalgamation 64 per cent
• The two Hutt valley councils should amalgamate 64 per cent
• The three Wairarapa councils should split from the Wellington region 62 per cent

Should the runway be extended?

• Yes 65 per cent
• No 10 per cent
• Neutral 22 per cent
• Don’t care 3 per cent

Who should pay the majority of the $300 million price tag?

• Wellington Airport (Infratil) 71 per cent
• Central Government 56 per cent
• Greater Wellington Region ratepayers 38 per cent
• Wellington City Council ratepayers 15 per cent

Term limits

• Support 56 per cent
• Opposed 14 per cent
• Neutral 34 per cent

Finally a request to the media – this is the second mayoral poll that has produced relatively useless information. If you’re going to poll a STV mayoral race at least try and conduct the poll in a way that mirrors how a voter ultimately votes, with preferences.  As was shown in 2010, First Past the Post polling doesn’t work in STV elections. You’re helping no one.