The DomPost is reporting Wellington’s mayoral race could be decided by a coin toss.
“But the pendulum may be swinging back in Kerry Prendergast’s favour, with nearly 200 of the special votes that will decide the city’s knife-edge election being discounted.
Election officials sorting through hundreds of special votes say that, in the event of a tie, names could be drawn from a hat or a coin could be tossed, under police supervision.
“We’d obviously get legal advice on this, but my understanding is that it would be determined by lot,” electoral officer Ross Bly said.”
Let’s hope Celia calls heads and the coin has two heads. Kerry has been the tail that’s wagged the dog for too long.
WCC Watch 
There are 775 specials returned. See http://www.wellington.govt.nz/haveyoursay/elections/index.html
Some of those will be invalid and we don’t know how many yet …. the figure of 200 that is being quoted comes from 963 special papers posted TO voters ….. and of those, 775 were returned.
In 2007 178 special papers were discarded for various reasons.
Using the same discard figure leaves 597 valid specials.
In 2007, Kerry got 265 of 800 valid specials or 33% and the remaining runners (at the last interation) got 409 of 800 specials or 51%.
Using those figures means in 2010 Kerry will get 198 extra votes and Celia will get 305, meaning Celia will win by 67 votes.
For Kerry to win, she needs to get 279 votes or 46% of the specials …. still quite achievable.
Still very very close.
Please let me know if there are errors in my maths and/or logic.
This is a little close for comfort. I still think Celia has it – partly based on the ’07 specials, partly on gut feeling!
(PS – if in ’07 there were 980 specials returned with 178 discarded, and this year there are 775 specials returned (rather than 980) then proportionately there won’t be 178 discarded, more like 141 or so. So Celia should be up by 75-80 if distribution the same ie if the specials go anti-Kerry in the same proportion as 07)
where’s my ouiji board…
Quite right on the discards but I’m trying to err on the side of caution. Finger-nails have gone and now onto the toe-nails!
Of course, once we get the results tomorrow, there will still be the judicial recounts to go …. could still be a while before we know.
picks for deputy mayor and who will get the bonus committees?
Regardless of who wins: McKinnon for DP and Pannett for Environment. Don’t think there will be much else to go around.
Interesting discussion on Kiwiblog about STV voting. The experts (Farrar and Graeme) appear to disagree on what tactical voting means: whether to rank someone last or just not rank them at all. If the former is wrong I apologise for helping Kerry to win. http://www.kiwiblog.co.nz/2010/10/why_kerry_lost.html