Poll mayhem has Kerry reaching for worry balls

At last coverage of the Wellington City Council elections is starting to heat up, two days after polls closed.  Newswire reported ‘Kerry just hanging on in oh-so-close mayoral race’.

But the 963 special votes are key. They will be counted on Wednesday.  The DomPost is talking about a Green swing tipped to unseat extant Mayor Kerry Prendergast.

Special votes, which have historically favoured left-wing challengers, could lead to victory for Green Party member Ms Wade-Brown.

I enjoyed Massey University’s rather agricultural analysis of the situation in that article.

“If I was Kerry and I was dependent on special votes, then I’d be contemplating my future. I’d be surprised if she’s still the mayor of Wellington,” said local government expert Andy Asquith, a senior lecturer at Massey University’s School of Management.

If people have been around for a long time, they start to think that they’re untouchable, if you like, and they can get away with almost anything.

If I was Kerry, I’d be carrying my campaign manager’s testicles around in a bag in my pocket.”

Hopefully the only thing in Kerry’s pocket are Chinese worry balls. Or Rex would be upset.

Electoral officer Ross Bly said the 963 special voting forms that had been sent out would ultimately decide who was awarded the mayoral chains for the next three years. A result is not expected until tomorrow evening at the earliest.

Dr Asquith said that, although special votes were unpredictable, he expected them to favour Ms Wade-Brown as special votes tended to favour the Green Party in general elections.

Celia has been looking to precedent for answers and the indications are good.

Ms Wade-Brown said she had reviewed figures from the last election, which showed that, of the 800 valid special votes, 265 went to Ms Prendergast while 409 went to the second and third-placed candidates

Even David Farrar of Kiwiblog senses the inevitable and he’s the self-proclaimed STV expert.

I agree that Celia is favoured to win on the specials. Graeme Edgeler pointed out that in 2007 Kerry got 12% fewer first preferences in the specials, than amongst ordinary votes.

iPredict currently has Celia with a 90% chance of becoming mayor in two days time.  Only a few weeks ago Kerry was on 90% and Celia was lucky to see 5%.  Remember how WWC Watch got this comment from the mayor back on September 21 (I am assuming former councillor ‘Going going’ Goulden hadn’t discovered the site by then).

Boy have you got it wrong. Go to iPredict.co.nz which is accepted as an accurate poll by the experts. Kerry is 92%+, Celia 5%, nither [sic] of those two 0.08%. And Kerry’s website is http://www.kerry4mayor.co.nz.

My, how things have changed.  Roll on history.

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